• The Kosmos 482 probe, launched in 1972, is expected to reenter Earth's atmosphere after failing to reach Venus.
• Experts believe parts of the probe could survive reentry due to its design for Venus' harsh atmosphere.
• The potential impact zone spans a wide area between 52 degrees north and south latitude, though the risk to individuals is considered low.

The Soviet Union's Kosmos 482, a probe intended to explore Venus, is set to reenter Earth's atmosphere after being stranded in low Earth orbit since 1972 due to a launch malfunction. The probe, comprised of a lander module designed to withstand Venus's extreme conditions, is being tracked by international space agencies. Its reentry poses a minimal risk to the global population, with experts calculating the probability of individual harm as very low, overshadowed by the fact that majority of the planet's surface is water. While the exact time and location of reentry are uncertain, the event is attracting attention as an example of uncontrolled space debris reentry.

• What: Reentry of the Kosmos 482 probe into Earth's atmosphere.
• Who: Soviet Union (launched the probe), international space agencies (tracking the probe), Jonathan McDowell (astronomer), Stijn Lemmens (European Space Agency), Marco Langbroek (Dutch satellite tracker), The Aerospace Corporation, Virtual Telescope Project.
• When: Launched in 1972, expected reentry around May 10, 2024 (with a wide margin of error).
• Where: Potential impact zone between 52 degrees north and south latitude, covering a large portion of Earth's surface. Observed via webcast from Manciano, Italy.

The reentry of Kosmos 482 highlights the issue of space debris and the long-term consequences of space missions. While the risk of damage from this particular reentry is considered low due to the probe's design and the vastness of the Earth's surface, it underscores the need for responsible space operations and controlled deorbiting of spacecraft. Discrepancies exist regarding the exact timing of the reentry, reflecting the challenges of predicting the behavior of objects in orbit. The Virtual Telescope Project's attempt to capture the event via webcast underscores the public interest in such events and the ongoing efforts to monitor space debris.

"There's a not-trivial chance that it could hit somewhere where it damages property, and there's a small chance — but it's like one in thousands — that it could hurt someone."

"It's much more likely that you win the lottery than that you get impacted by this piece of space debris."

"While the risk is nonzero, any one individual on Earth is far likelier to be struck by lightning than to be injured by Cosmos 482"

"is not sure we will succeed, as this is an extreme task, but we will do our best"

The impending reentry of the Kosmos 482 probe, a failed Soviet Venus mission launched in 1972, highlights the complexities and potential, albeit low, risks of space exploration. While the exact time and location of reentry remain uncertain, current predictions estimate it to occur around May 10, 2025, with a wide potential impact zone between 52 degrees north and 52 degrees south latitude. Despite the low probability of causing harm, the reentry underscores the critical need for responsible space debris management and continuous monitoring of objects in orbit. Kosmos 482, designed to withstand the harsh Venusian atmosphere, may not entirely burn up during reentry, potentially reaching the Earth's surface at a speed of 150 mph. Although the risk to individuals is statistically low, comparable to being struck by lightning, the event serves as a reminder of the potential consequences of uncontrolled reentries and the importance of international collaboration in tracking and mitigating space debris. Live webcasts offer a glimpse into this event, acknowledging the inherent challenges in observing such uncontrolled occurrences.