• California gas prices could surge to $8.43 per gallon by the end of 2026 due to the potential closure of two major refineries.
• The closures of Phillips 66 in Los Angeles and Valero in Benicia would significantly reduce gasoline production capacity in the state.
• State legislators and former officials are urging Governor Newsom to take action, citing concerns about the impact on Californians already struggling with high costs.

California is facing a potential gasoline price crisis due to the anticipated closure of two major oil refineries, Phillips 66 in Los Angeles and Valero in Benicia. According to a study by University of Southern California professor Michael Mische, these closures, combined with existing policies and potential disruptions to oil supplies, could drive gas prices to as high as $8.43 per gallon by the end of 2026. This development has sparked concern among state legislators and former officials, who are calling on Governor Gavin Newsom to take action to mitigate the impact on consumers.

• What: Potential closure of Phillips 66 refinery in Los Angeles and Valero refinery in Benicia, leading to reduced gasoline production and increased gas prices.
• Who: Michael Mische (USC professor), Gavin Newsom (California Governor), Brian Jones (California Senate Minority Leader), Antonio Villaraigosa (Former Los Angeles Mayor), James Gallagher (Assembly Minority Leader), Suzette Martinez Valladares (Republican Senator).
• When: Phillips 66 refinery potentially closing towards the end of the current year. Valero refinery potentially closing by April 2026. Projected price increases by the end of 2026.
• Where: California, specifically Los Angeles and the Bay Area where the refineries are located. Also mentioned are Nevada and Arizona which get supply from California.

The potential closure of these refineries poses a significant threat to California's gasoline supply and affordability. The projected price increase could disproportionately affect low-income residents and exacerbate existing economic challenges. The situation highlights the complex interplay between environmental policies, refinery operations, and consumer costs. The differing viewpoints between the governor's office, which emphasizes price gouging, and Republican legislators/analysts, who point to state policies as the primary driver, underscore the political dimensions of this issue. The studies released by Michael Mische, indicating that gas woes are tied to policies, contrast with the governor's focus on price-gouging, adding further complexity.

Any disruptions to maritime markets, routes, ports, operations, etc., will have a significant effect on California gasoline security and consumer prices, as well as prices in Nevada and Arizona.

WARNING TO CALIFORNIA MOTORISTS! If we continue to drive refineries out of California, gas prices will soar and disproportionately affect those who can least afford it.

Refineries are shutting down, and gas prices are spiking. Californians are paying the price for Gavin Newsom’s failed policies. Life here keeps getting harder, and he’s too busy chasing his next job to care. This isn’t leadership, it’s ambition at our expense.

lots of things that the Governor can do, CEQA exemptions, other environmental reviews, tax breaks, and working with the federal government on this as well.

The potential closure of two major refineries in California poses a serious threat to the state's gasoline supply and affordability. While Governor Newsom's office points to price gouging as a key factor, analysts and legislators are raising concerns about the impact of state policies on refinery operations. The projected price increase to $8.43 per gallon could have significant economic consequences for California residents. Ongoing developments regarding the refinery closures and potential policy changes will need to be closely monitored to assess the long-term impact on gas prices and the state's economy.